SLB vs SRK, Part 2

                                           

The cast of Dilwale. The two films contesting at the turnstiles – Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani – have been on an aggressive campaign, pulling out all stops on all available media platforms to get the audience’s attention.

Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani are both set to release on December 18.

t times, Bollywood’s box office battles seem as keenly contested as the general elections. Take Friday, December 18, the biggest date for 2015 so far. The two films contesting at the turnstiles – Dilwale andBajirao Mastani – have been on an aggressive campaign, pulling out all stops on all available media platforms to get the audience’s attention and eventual vote of approval. Meanwhile, even as the nation waits and wants to know who would emerge the winner in what seems to be a neck-and-neck race, there are strong rumours that Bajirao could release a week or two later.

Crucial date

This primarily because both the films have big money riding on them. For an industry notorious for keeping the real numbers and figures opaque, the guess is that anywhere between Rs 250-300 crore would be at stake on this single Friday.

Not that the clash of the big films is anything new. Aamir Khan and Sunny Deol starrers Dil and Ghayalin 1990 and later, Raja Hindustani and Ghatak in 1996 had released just a week after each other. While Aamir had been ahead in these bouts, it was the head-on clash of Lagaan with Gadar in 2001 in which Sunny took the lead. Aamir’s Ghajini and SRK’s Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi were a few weeks apart in 2008 and the clear winner was Ghajini , the first Bollywood film to reach the Rs 100 crore mark.

Now, things have only got bigger and bolder and stakes are that much higher. “No clash in principle is good, both would have benefitted if one had come a week later considering they are targeting the same family audience,” says Shailesh Kapoor of Ormax Media, a media and entertainment industry insights firm. However, for Sanjay Mehta of Bobby Enterprises, a North India film distribution and exhibition company, “there is enough space for two”. To him, both seem equally well poised and come with as good a buzz. Dilwale has the star-power and nostalgia of SRK-Kajol jodi and Varun-Kriti to appeal to the young. 

“There is an instant connect with SRK and Kajol and they have been smart in having Varun to reach out to the under 25 demographic,” says Amul Mohan, editor, Super Cinema. Bajirao , on the other hand, has the combined might of Ranveer-Priyanka-Deepika behind it. Dilwale has Rohit Shetty’s action-comedy-emotion-romance appeal. “He has his own market, has a fabulous track record,” says Mehta. Bajirao (the Peshwa controversy aside) scores more points with the appreciation it is fetching for Bhansali’s larger-than-life visuals and his ear for music.

So Bajirao clearly seems to be the upmarket flick as against Dilwale that is targeted at the masses. Ironically, Eros International, its distributor, is rumoured to have pocketed almost all the single screens in Mumbai and left just two for Dilwale in Delhi – Amba and Delite Diamond. Bajirao has the corporate advantage and backing in Eros. It is being distributed by Eros directly and is likely to get better cinema halls and shows. Dilwale , on the other hand, is following the old model of film distribution, selling the film at a fantastic price to the individual distributors. PVR Pictures is releasing it in Mumbai whereas a new company Prateek Enterprises distributes it in Delhi-UP. The trade anticipates last minute deals and flexing of muscles for the shows next week if Bajirao decides not shift dates.

The trade is also hopeful that both films will be seen in big numbers. Question is which will the audience go for first? The opening of the two will definitely be impacted. However, it’s not just the first weekend but the following Christmas weekend that will seal the fate. “The focus can’t be on the opening but which of the two gets a higher second week. That will determine the lifetime earnings,” says Kapoor. The industry wants both the films to fare well in a year which hasn’t been a spectacularly happy one when it comes to money-making. “The industry was growing at a good pace in 2012 and even 2013, but 2014 was a year of stagnation, with collections being a notch lower than 2013. As of now, 2015 is about 300 crore behind 2014 (Rs 2430 cr). If both Dilwale and Bajirao Mastani do well, we are looking at a scenario where 2015 may be on par or just ahead of 2014,” says Kapoor.

“In ten days, the industry will know if it’s prudent to release big films on the same day or not,” says Amul Mohan. How the two pan out will also be crucial in determining whether Bollywood will see its biggest clash ever next year. Will Salman Khan’s Sultan lock horns with Shah Rukh’s Raees on Eid in 2016? OnlyDilwale and Bajirao will tell.